Empirical study of systematic dynamics model construction of Beijing commercial housing market and application in early warning
CUI Xiao1, ZHOU Ke-cheng2, CAO Dong-bing1, LI Xiu-ting1, WU Di1, DONG Ji-chang1
1. School of Management, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;2. College of Engineering, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Abstract：The outbreak of the subprime crisis caused the academic concern of risk and early warning systems on real estate market.In this paper, based on system thinking, we set up a systematic dynamics model of the commercial housing market of Beijing after the analysis of the factors effecting commercial housing market. Then, we prove the validity of the model by comparing the result of simulation and the historical data of Beijing commercial housing market. Finally, we obtain the value of several early warning indicators under different assumptions of Beijing commercial housing market in 2010 and provide a systematic early warning method.
崔啸;周克成;曹冬冰;李秀婷;吴迪;董纪昌. 北京市商品住宅系统动力学模型构建及其在预警中的应用[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2011, 31(4): 672-678.
CUI Xiao;ZHOU Ke-cheng;CAO Dong-bing;LI Xiu-ting;WU Di;DONG Ji-chang. Empirical study of systematic dynamics model construction of Beijing commercial housing market and application in early warning. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2011, 31(4): 672-678.
2011, Vol. 31 
