Chinese movies' life cycle model and empirical analysis
LI Bo1,4, LU Feng-bin2, ZHAO Xiu-juan3, WANG Qian5, WANG Shou-yang2,5
1. School of Sciences, Communication University of China, Beijing 100024, China;2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;3. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100081, China;4. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China;5. School of Management, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Abstract：Based on the analysis of movie life cycles in Chinese movie market, this article establishes the Gamma demand model considering seasonal factor and other influence factors,and studies movie audience population and the decay situation combining with variable intercept model in panel data model and multiple regression model. The result shows that the model could more accurately reflect the audience population change rule in domestic movie market. In addition, in view of Chinese movie market, quantitative study has been carried out in order to make clear how the factors such as movie stars, sequel, budget etc. affect the audience population, what help the movie policy-maker make some instructions to formulate strategies as well as the audience demand forecasts. Empirical study shows the necessity of considering seasonality. In addition, We find large amount of audiences can cause the audience decay rate to appear quicker, in fact the difference of the decay rate between big budget and small budget movies is very small, which is different from some other literatures, and a simulation indicates our conclusion is reasonable.
李波;陆凤彬;赵秀娟;王谦;汪寿阳;. 我国电影生命周期模型及实证分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2010, 30(10): 1790-1797.
LI Bo;LU Feng-bin;ZHAO Xiu-juan;WANG Qian;WANG Shou-yang;. Chinese movies' life cycle model and empirical analysis. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2010, 30(10): 1790-1797.
2010, Vol. 30 
