Abstract：Based on comparison between classical decision-making issues and crisis decision-making issues, specified constrain conditions of crisis decision-making are analyzed, which behaves more like a complex system. In this paper, a decision-making method for complex crisis is developed, which consists of three principles, a cross-simulation model, and a decision-making model based on cross-simulation. The three principles include the dynamic anchoring principle, the effective non-optimal principle, and the bottom line principle. The three principles aim at three major difficulties of crisis decision-making, which are no-fixed objective, lack of evaluation method, and hard to adjust. The cross-simulation model contributes to accuracy and reliability of simulation with integration of data and models. The decision-making model based on cross-simulation provides effective decision support for complex crisis. The method developed in this paper may be applied to more complex issues not limited to crisis.
王刚桥, 刘奕, 杨盼, 杨锐, 张辉. 面向突发事件的复杂系统应急决策方法研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2015, 35(10): 2449-2458.
WANG Gang-qiao, LIU Yi, YANG Pan, YANG Rui, ZHANG Hui. Study on decision-making method for complex crisis. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2015, 35(10): 2449-2458.
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