Abstract：Aiming at the great influence that extreme preference members playing in emergency decision-making, influence model of individual extreme preference is constructed. By combining the direction and distance of risk preference vector, a new risk preference similarity model for decision-making members is put forward. From this model, the extremists group is divided into two groups:Homogeneous group and heterogeneous group. On this basis, the degree of subjective acceptance for non-extreme preference members is introduced in order to explain the acceptance degree that non-extreme preference members to the homogeneous group and heterogeneous group. Risk preference evolution model for multi-stage large group emergency decision-making is further constructed. Finally, the rationality and validity of the model are verified by the contrast analysis of the data simulation results in case study.
曹静, 徐选华, 陈晓红. 极端偏好影响的大群体应急决策风险演化模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2019, 39(3): 596-614.
CAO Jing, XU Xuanhua, CHEN Xiaohong. Risk evolution model for large group emergency decision-making influenced by extreme preference. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2019, 39(3): 596-614.
[1] 查勇, 宋阿丽, 杨宏林,等.考虑决策者风险偏好的机会约束DEA模型[J]. 管理科学学报, 2014, 17(1):11-20. Zha Y, Song A L, Yang H L, et al. Chance constrained DEA model considering decision maker's risk appetite[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2014, 17(1):11-20. [2] 陈俊霖, 李沁雪, 张春萍,等.应急环境下时间压力和决策者风险态度对决策行为的影响实验研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015(S1):349-358.Chen J L, Li Q X, Zhang C P, et al. An experimental study on the effect of risk preference and time constraint on emergency decision makings[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015(S1):349-358. [3] Zhou W, Xu Z S. Asymmetric fuzzy preference relations based on the generalized sigmoid scale and their application in decision making involving risk appetites[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2016, 7(24):741-756. [4] Suzuki S, Jensen E L S, Bossaerts P, et al. Behavioral contagion during learning about another agent's risk-preferences acts on the neural representation of decision-risk[J]. Proc of the National Academy of Sciences, 2016, 113(14):3755-3760. [5] Gao J, Li M, Liu H. Generalized ordered weighted utility averaging-hyperbolic absolute risk aversion operators and their applications to group decision making[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2015, 243(1):258-270. [6] Xu X H, Du Z J, Chen X H. Consensus model for multi-criteria large-group emergency decision making considering non-cooperative behaviors and minority opinions[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2015, 79:150-160. [7] 徐选华, 杜志娇, 陈晓红,等.保护少数意见的冲突型大群体应急决策方法[J]. 管理科学学报, 2017, 20(11):10-23.Xu X H, Du Z J, Chen X H, et al. Conflict large-group emergency decision-making method while protecting minority opinions[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2017, 20(11):10-23. [8] 杨雷, 赵九茹.决策偏好不确定条件下群体决策收敛一致性研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(1):96-102.Yang L, Zhao J R. Research on preference convergence of group decision making under the condition of uncertainty information[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2017, 26(1):96-102. [9] 王大伟, 胡艺馨, 时勘.先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响[J]. 心理科学, 2014, 37(2):383-387.Wang D W, Hu Y X, Shi K. The effect of previous emotion and overconfidence on risk decision-making following disaster event[J]. Journal of Psychological Science, 2014, 37(2):383-387. [10] 段婧, 刘永芳, 何琪. 决策者角色及相关因素对风险偏好的影响[J]. 心理学报, 2012, 44(3):369-376.Duan J, Liu Y F, He Q. Effects of the decision maker's roles and the related factors on risk preferences[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2012, 44(3):369-376. [11] Sengupta A, Pal T K. On comparing interval numbers[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2000, 127(1):28-43. [12] 丁颖.个体极端行为及其影响因子LOGIT分析[J]. 浙江社会科学, 2012(6):90-94.Ding Y. Individual extreme behavior and the logit analysis of its impact factor[J]. Zhejiang Social Sciences, 2012(6):90-94. [13] 杨雷, 席酉民. 群体讨论对个体偏好极端性转移的影响[J]. 系统工程, 1997, 15(1):9-13.Yang L, Xi Y M. Individual polarization shift from group discussion[J]. Systems Engineering, 1997, 15(1):9-13. [14] 刘锟.大学生极端心理危机的心理特征分析[J].科教文汇, 2014(1):210-211.Liu K. Analysis of psychological characteristics on college students' extreme psychological crisis[J]. The Science Education Article Collects, 2014(1):210-211. [15] Galam S. Heterogeneous beliefs, segregation, and extremism in the making of public opinions[J]. Physical Review E, 2005, 71(4):046123. [16] Mobilia M, Petersen A, Redner S. On the role of zealotry in the voter model[J]. Journal of Statistical Mechanics:Theory and Experiment, 2007, 8:P08029. [17] Deffuant G. Comparing extremism propagation patterns in continuous opinion models[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2006, 9(3):8. [18] 王长峰, 满颖.基于动态博弈理论的重大工程应急管理决策研究[J].中国管理科学, 2013(s1):172-176.Wang C F, Man Y. Research on emergency management decision-making based on dynamic game theory in major projects[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013(s1):172-176. [19] 刘嘉, 谢科范.突发事件群体决策演化[J].系统工程, 2014, 12:97-103.Liu J, Xie K F. Group decision-making evolution in emergency[J]. Systems Engineering, 2014, 12:97-103. [20] 于海峰, 王延章, 王宁, 等.基于情境的突发事件演化网络约简研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2012(11):1-4.Yu H F, Wang Y Z, Wang N, et al. Research of emergency evolving network reduction based on circumstance[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2012, 31(11):1-4. [21] 魏玖长,韦玉芳,周嘉.群体性突发事件中群体行为的演化态势研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版), 2011, 13(6):25-30.Wei J C, Wei Y F, Zhou J. Research on the evolvement trend of collective behavior in mass emergency[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (Social Sciences Edition), 2011, 13(6):25-30. [22] 王德鲁, 孙建滨.基于行为的企业突发事件演化动力学模型及仿真[J]. 情报杂志, 2015, 34(4):97-103.Wang D L, Sun J B. Modelling and simulation of enterprise emergency evolution dynamics based on behavior perspective[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2015, 34(4):97-103. [23] Piatyszek E, Karagiannis G M. A model-based approach for a systematic risk analysis of local flood emergency operation plans:A first step toward a decision support system[J]. Natural Hazards, 2012, 61(3):1443-1462. [24] Liu Y, Fan Z P, Yuan Y, et al. A FTA-based method for risk decision making in emergency response[J]. Computers and Operations Research, 2014, 42(2):49-57. [25] Mathias J D, Huet S, Deffuant G. Bounded confidence model with fixed uncertainties and extremists:The opinions can keep fluctuating indefinitely[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2016, 19(1):6. [26] Hegselmann R, Krause U. Opinion dynamics under the influence of radical groups, charismatic leaders, and other constant signals:A simple unifying model[J]. Networks and Heterogeneous Media, 2015, 10(3):477-509. [27] Hegselmann R. Bounded confidence, radical groups, and charismatic leaders[C]//Social Simulation Conference, 2014:217-219. [28] 徐选华, 王佩, 蔡晨光. 基于云相似度的语言偏好信息多属性大群体决策方法[J]. 控制与决策, 2017, 32(3):459-466.Xu X H, Wang P, Cai C G. Linguistic multi-attribute large group decision-making method based on similarity measurement of cloud model[J]. Control and Decision, 2017, 32(3):459-466. [29] 王晨旭, 管晓宏, 秦涛,等.微博消息传播中意见领袖影响力建模研究[J]. 软件学报, 2015, 26(6):1473-1485.Wang C X, Guan X H, Qin T, et al. Modelling on opinion leader's influence in microblog message propagation and its application[J]. Journal of Software, 2015, 26(6):1473-1485. [30] 徐选华, 曹静.大型水电工程复杂生态环境风险评价[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2012, 32(10):2237-2246.Xu X H, Cao J. Risk evaluation for complex ecological environment of large-scale hydropower engineering[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2012, 32(10):2237-2246. [31] 徐选华. 面向特大自然灾害复杂大群体决策模型及应用[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2012.Xu X H. Complex large group decision making models and its application oriented outsize nature disasters[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2012. [32] 徐选华, 陈晓红.基于矢量空间的群体聚类方法研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2005, 27(6):1034-1037.Xu X H, Chen X H. Research on the group clustering method based on vector space[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2005, 27(6):1034-1037.
2019, Vol. 39 
