Starting from the motivation of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), this paper sorts out the main influence paths of OFDI on employment, puts forward a measurement model based on time-varying state space model and input-output model, and calculates the home country employment effect and opportunity cost of China's OFDI to the U.S., using China's manufacturing OFDI and export data to the U.S. from 2007 to 2014 and the world input-output table. The results show that:1) China's OFDI to the U.S. generates an overall creation effect on employment, with an average of 1.47 million jobs offered to China each year; 2) From the perspective of investment motivation, market-seeking OFDI has a creation effect on home country employment, while resource-seeking OFDI has a substitution effect on it; 3) The opportunity cost of China's OFDI to the U.S. for employment was relatively large before 2012, while after 2012, OFDI created more employment in home country compared with domestic investment.
People have been paying more attention to the relationship between urban innovation ability and urban air quality in recent years. As a result, this paper constructs a spatial panel data model to study the impact of urban innovation capacity on urban air quality and analyses urban PM2.5 from the perspectives of population density, economic growth, urban traffic level, industrial structure, energy consumption, and urban sprawl using panel data from 35 Chinese cities from 2001 to 2016. The findings show that:Urban PM2.5 pollution has a significant spatial spillover effect; improving urban innovation ability and optimizing the urban industrial structure significantly reduces PM2.5 pollution emissions; and improving urban population density, energy consumption, and transportation levels all together aggravate urban PM2.5 pollution emissions.
Using intra-day and inter-day transaction data of Chinese bond market from 2010 to 2020, this study calculates 18 liquidity measures from 3 dimensions (transaction frequency, transaction cost and price impact). We find that monthly trading count of Chinese interbank (exchange) market accounts for 10.90% (78.19%) that of U.S. corporate bond market, but the transaction cost is only 13.99%~26.91% (27.47%~71.15%) that of U.S. corporate bond market. The correlation among the 18 liquidity measures is smaller than that of the U.S. market. Liquidity measures explain less than 3% of bond yield spread in Chinese market, which is less than 30% that of the U.S. market (11%). The explanatory power of liquidity increased after the rigid repayment was violated, especially when the market is hit by credit or liquidity shock. But even under these circumstances, the explanatory power of liquidity is still lower than the U.S. market.
This paper regards seeking government bailouts as a real option, and constructs a dynamic model to reveal the impact of asset liquidity and government bailouts on enterprise default risks. The model shows that the decline of asset liquidity, which is reflected in the reduction of market sales opportunities, will increase enterprise default risk, while the strengthening of government bailouts can weaken the impact of asset liquidity on default risk. This paper uses the 2009—2019 Chinese A-share listed companies as a sample to conduct an empirical test, showing consistent results with the theoretical model. Further research finds that the government's public support only has a significant impact on companies without political connections, while politically connected companies rely on private channels to seek government bailouts and ease liquidity pressure. The research expands the framework for studying factors affecting enterprise default risk and helps to understand the impact of asset liquidity and the effect of government bailouts, providing evidence for formulating risk prevention policies.
This paper constructs a panel model to conduct an empirical analysis on the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the banking systemic risk and its mechanism based on the annual data of 16 listed banks in China from 2010 to 2020. The research shows that:1) Economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on banking systemic risk. Compared with state-owned banking sector, economic policy uncertainty has more positive influence on non-state-owned banking sector. 2) Risk-taking, net interest margin and inter-bank business play a mediating role in the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and systemic risk of banks. Economic policy uncertainty can promote systemic risk of banks mainly by increasing bank risk-taking, narrowing net interest margin and expanding the scale of inter-bank business. The transmission channel of "economic policy uncertainty-risk-taking/net interest margin/inter-bank business-banking systemic risk" are effective. 3) Both bankers' optimism and capital regulation have a negative moderating effect on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and banking systemic risk, and the improvement of bankers' optimism and capital regulation will weaken the promoting effect of economic policy uncertainty on banking systemic risk.
To deeply explore the price impact and price discovery process under the microstructure of the high-frequency market, first, we reconstruct dynamic limit order book, and discuss the market anomalies around quote burst from the vertical time dimension and the imbalance characteristics of limit order distribution from the horizontal price dimension. Second, based on Hasbrouck's price impact model, we include four different levels of measurement indicators:Price changes, volume direction, multi-level order flow imbalance, and quote burst, and comprehensively discuss the effects of these factors in the price formation process, and the mechanism and trader behavior characteristics behind. Using limit order book data of sample stocks listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, our empirical analysis results show that, the weak autocorrelation of price changes and trade directions, which is mentioned in classical researches, is decaying, while limit order flow is presenting more information of liquidity providers, hence limit order imbalance is becoming a more essential factor in price formation process. Quote bursts, which are resulted from information breakdown of liquidity providers and suppliers, often bring additional price impacts, and in China's stock market, some traders may use information asymmetry to manipulate stock price.
Exploring the logic of enterprises' choice of reactive and proactive environmental strategies is of great significance to promoting China's green development and high-quality economic growth. It is the decision logic that managers generally follow to formulate organizational strategy based on performance feedback, but the reference effect and influence mechanism of performance feedback on environmental strategy decision-making are still in a "lack box" state. Based on the dual institutional perspectives of Confucian culture and environmental regulations, this article uses the data of 650 heavily polluting listed companies in China from 2015 to 2019 as a research sample, and uses the fixed effects model for static panels to empirically examine the impact of performance feedback on corporate environmental strategies and institutional boundaries. The study found that performance feedback has an important decision-making reference for environmental strategies. Performance deficits can motivate companies to adopt proactive environmental strategies, while companies are more inclined to adopt reactive environmental strategies under conditions of performance surplus. Confucian culture and environmental regulations have formed a significant institutional impact on the decision-making reference effect of performance feedback. The ethical guiding role of Confucian culture and the restraining role of environmental regulations can strengthen the incentive effect of the performance deficit on the proactive environmental strategy. Moreover, there is a significant institutional complementarity effect between Confucian culture and environmental regulations, which is conducive to strengthening the response mechanism of environmental strategies to performance feedback. This article can not only expand the application scope of behavioral economics in the field of strategic management based on the perspective of environmental strategy, but also help to provide a practical basis for enterprises to optimize the environmental strategic decision-making mechanism from the perspective of the integration of formal and informal systems.
The effectiveness of the dual-credit policy largely depends on whether it can stimulate the coordinated and balanced development of the financial performance of enterprises (upstream and downstream) in all links of the NEVs industry chain. This article divides the financial performance into profitability, operating ability, solvency, and risk resistance, and the disparity of the influence of the dual-credit policy on the financial performance of upstream and downstream enterprises of NEVs is analyzed by using the interrupted time series (ITS) method. The results are as follows. Firstly, the dual-credit policy can improve the risk resistance, profitability and operating capacity of new energy vehicle enterprises, but has a weak effect on the improvement of solvency. Secondly, the dual-credit policy has a strong synchronization effect on the upstream and downstream enterprises' profitability, operating ability, and risk resistance, while the enhancement effect on solvency is less synchronized. Finally, there are certain differences in the influence of the dual-credit policy on the financial performance of upstream and downstream NEVs enterprises. Specifically, the dual-credit policy has a stronger effect on profitability, operating ability and risk resistance of the upstream enterprises, with a stronger role in the solvency of downstream enterprises.
Because of double pressures from "twelve consecutive declines" in monthly sales year-on-year and the novel coronavirus outbreak, purchase subsidy decrease for new energy vehicle had to be postponed from the end of 2020 to 2022. However, carmakers concentrating on intelligentization were outstanding and became the center of attention. Therefore, when purchase subsidy decrease should apply for and whether intelligentization can hedge the negative effect should be answered immediately. This paper builds a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model by adding productive intelligentization factors to production function and using procedure intelligentization factors to utility function, using different macro-closure to simulate the period of insufficient supply or demand and Chinese statistical data in 2018 to calibrate parameters, to analyze the suitable situation for purchase subsidy decrease and the difference and function border of hedging between productive intelligentization and using procedure intelligentization. The results show that purchase subsidy decrease for new energy vehicle should apply for the period of insufficient supply, because it will promote the low correlation industries and decrease the income inequality, while using procedure intelligentization developed moderately can hedge the negative effects to social farewell and new energy industry caused by purchase subsidy decrease and will not over hedge the above positive effects at the same time. But in the period of insufficient demand, the above positive effects will be altered to negative and hardly be hedged by intelligentization. Therefore, the policy decision of purchase subsidy decrease for new energy vehicle should depend on the degree of economic recovery from the novel coronavirus outbreak. If economic recovery is rapid, we can develop using procedure intelligentization moderately, namely, self driving, to hedge the subsidy decrease. Otherwise, we should postpone the subsidy decrease.
Due to its strong assumption in the independence axiom, expected utility theory cannot well describe risk attitudes in reality. Cumulative prospect theory complements expected utility theory by incorporating a decision maker's mentality, making it a more interpretive model of choices under risk. However, its axiomatic assumptions, namely the double matching axiom and the common independence axiom, conflict with agents' real choices in laboratory studies. Such conflicts are considered as the theoretical flaw of cumulative prospect theory. This paper restricts the independence axiom, combines the three risk decision-making rules obtained by prospect theory in its behavioral experiments. Specifically, we take combination, homogeneity, and dual diminishing sensitivity into account. The four new axiomatic assumptions have been used to re-prove cumulative prospect theory. The derived model is a utility function with reference point dependence, rank dependence, and nonlinear weighting of probabilities, so that it allows the risk attitudes of decision-makers to change with the specific decision circumstances. The axiomatic properties and economic intuitions of the model are well discussed in detail in three scenarios:Positive prospects, negative prospects, and mixed prospects. Moreover, this paper also discusses the reason for the reflection effect of positive and negative prospects. In the case of mixed prospects, risk decision-makers assign non-zero weight to the reference point state with actual zero probability. Finally, the paper suggests that the expected utility model is a reduced form of the cumulative prospect theory model when the probability preference function is linear.
Multi-view learning (MVL) exploits the multi-view data to improve the performance of the learning tasks. However, most multi-view leaning models are built for only two-view setting, or mainly embed either the consensus principle or the complementarity principle. To overcome aforementioned drawbacks, we propose a consensus and complementarity-based multi-view least square support vector machine (MVLSSVM-2C), which leverages view-agreement on multi-view predictors and weight combination strategy. We then adopt an iterative two-step strategy to solve the optimization problem efficiently. Further more, the generalization capability is theoretically analyzed by using Rademacher complexity. The extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed model.
In a linear monocentric city considering the heterogeneity in residents income levels, an equilibrium model for travel mode and residential location choice is constructed, and five possible travel distribution modes are discussed. This paper studies the impacts of public transit subsidy and operation strategies on residents' travel mode split and land rental prices. Moreover, the changes in residents' utility level and government' land rental income are also studied. The results show that under different travel distribution modes, the implementation effects of public transit subsidies and operation strategies are different. When all residents are bus users, these three bus strategies can benefit all residents, but neither narrowing the utility gap nor increasing the government rental income. When some residents drive to work, these three measures can narrow the utility gap among residents and promote social equity. However, under all travel distribution patterns, increasing the average travel speed of a bus will reduce the government' rental income. This research can provide reference and inspiration for the traffic management department to formulate public transit subsidies and operation strategies.
This paper proposes a reliability-based emergency evacuation route planning model (including route selection and flow distribution over time) with uncertain road capacity. Existing models assume that the road capacity after a disaster is known when the route plan is made, either as an exact constant constant or as an exact probability distribution function. This paper assumes that the probability distribution of road capacity is difficult to know accurately, and only part of the distribution information is known. Using the method of distributionally robust optimization, the worst-case reliable evacuation route plan is constructed in which an ambiguity set characterized by known information is sought. Based on the principle of network breakdown minimization of traffic flow, a chance constraint model with minimum congestion probability as the goal is established to ensure that the flow allocated by the emergency evacuation route plan does not exceed the actual road capacity after the disaster, and further ensures the reliability of the route plan. The solution method is given, and the simulation analysis is carried out to verify the validity of the method and the reliability of the evacuation route plan.
In shipping network, feeder ships are needed to fulfill the demand of cargo transportation between a hub-port and its feeder ports. The objective of feeder ship routing problem (FSRP) is to minimize the transportation cost, while the feasible time of entering and leaving a port is affected by tide and load, due to the limitation of the waterway depth. Different from classic VRPTW (vehicle routing problem with time windows), the tidal time windows of FSRP raised by this study changes by the route of the ship, bringing challenge to solve the problem. This paper studies an FSRP with nonlinear time window, and solved by column generation, after a model simplification by Dantzig-Wolfe Decomposition. Numerical experiment and sensitivity analysis proofed that the algorithm is effective as well as that consider tidal influence can effectively reduce the operation cost of fleet.
In-kind donation has become an important channel for raising relief supplies, however, it often fails to achieve the desired results and could even cause negative effects due to lack of effective guiding strategies and coordination methods. This paper presents two donation strategies:1) coordinated and concentrated donation; 2) unsolicited donation without coordination. On the basis of deprivation level theory, the relief performance under two strategies is analyzed and compared. In view of the fact that donation supplies in many cases are partially usable, this paper further considers the usability of donation supplies, and establishes models to analyze the relief efficiency as well as the potential negative effects of in-kind donations under both strategies respectively. Finally, using food donation data collected from Hainan Province after Typhoon Rammasun, a numerical example is given to verify and compare the donation strategies proposed in this article, followed by some suggestions on donation management.
The resonance of public opinion topics in online social networks is an increasingly common phenomenon, and the interaction and superposition of similar or related topics make public group emotions more complex and uncertain, making it more difficult for the government to control. For this purpose, this paper constructs a two-layer complex network model based on opinion dynamics with variable interaction thresholds considered in online social networks with topic relations, temporal mechanisms, government, media, and netizens as variable parameters, and conducts simulations and comparative validation using data from Sina Weibo, a popular online social networking platform in China. The results show that the existence of topic resonance effect has a "damping force" on the evolution of group emotions, which makes group emotions more "stubborn" and difficult to be influenced by external information; meanwhile, in the topic resonance phenomenon occurring at different stages of the life cycle of the public opinion, group emotions show different evolutionary characteristics. At the same time, group emotions show different evolutionary characteristics in the resonance of topics at different stages of life cycle of the public opinion. Therefore, in view of different scenarios of public opinion events, the government should adopt different response strategies to improve the governance ability of the network ecology.
To reduce the subjectivity associated with coupling coordination degree calculation and reveal the coupling coordination status between the capability and benefits of lean construction (LC) in prefabricated building projects, a coupling evaluation study of LC capability and benefits of prefabricated building was conducted by improving the traditional coupling coordination degree model. The coupling mechanism of LC capability and benefits was revealed via literature analyses and theoretical deduction. Based on literature analyses and expert review, an evaluation index system of LC capability and benefits was established, and each index was weighted using the entropy method. Based on the improved coupling coordination degree model, the coupling coordination degree of LC capability and benefits was evaluated. The sample data of 14 prefabricated projects in different regions was collected to analyze the coupling coordination degree of LC capability and benefit in these projects. The results show that current LC capability-benefit coupling coordination degree of most prefabricated projects is between 0.609 and 0.761, which is at the primary or intermediate level of coordination; the coupling coordination degree of certain projects is less than 0.5, which is on the verge of imbalance. There is a significant gap between south and north regions in terms of LC capability-benefit coupling coordination level of prefabricated projects, mainly due to differences in willingness to use and economic development, rather than the promotion time of prefabricated buildings. Based on the result analysis, this study suggests creating a benign ecology for the transformation between LC capability and benefits and improving the existing LC capability training system. Study results provide theoretical references and suggestions for achieving the benign coupling between LC capability and benefits of prefabricated building.
To support the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and realize the effective consumption of new energy, this paper establishes a distributed power market that includes information interaction and decision optimization, proposes a blockchain-based collaborative optimization method for microgrid distributed energy, and quantifies the impact of the application of blockchain technology on microgrid power demand and distributed energy power trading. Meanwhile, in order to reduce the influence of decision maker's subjectivity on the optimization strategy, the optimization model under limited rationality of market members is established by using prospect theory to analyze the influence of psychological expectations and individual behavioral preferences of power generators in power trading on the trading decision. The simulation results show that the microgrid based on the blockchain can integrate the distributed new energy, realize the optimal allocation of resources through the supply side coordination and improve the flexibility of power supply of the microgrid and the economic benefits of the market members. Using prospect theory to consider human limited rationality, market members are able to better manage risks.